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Journal of Cell Biology

Rockefeller University Press

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Journal of Cell Biology's content profile, based on 333 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.18% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Loss of MITF activity leads to emergent cell states from the melanocyte stem cell lineage

Brombin, A.; MacMaster, S.; Travnickova, J.; Wyatt, C.; Brunsdon, H.; Ramsey, E.; Vu, H. N.; Steingrimsson, E.; Kenny, C.; Chandra, T.; Patton, E. E.

2026-04-12 developmental biology 10.64898/2025.12.23.695681 medRxiv
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How embryonic cells generate large clones of cells in the adult represents a fundamental question in biology. Here, using melanocyte stem cells (McSCs) in the zebrafish as a model, we explore the function of the master melanocyte transcription factor (MITF) in safeguarding McSCs in embryonic development and their potential to pigment large clones in the adult. MITF is well known is for its role in the specification of melanoblasts from the neural crest (NC) and their differentiation into melanocytes, yet little is known about how this activity shapes the stem cell lineages. Here, we use live imaging coupled with single-cell transcriptomics and lineage tracing to show that MITF (mitfa in zebrafish) protects the melanocyte stem cell (McSC) fate in zebrafish. Utilizing a temperature sensitive mitfavc7 mutant, we show loss of Mitfa leads to a surprising premature and aberrant expansion of McSC progeny at the niche during embryogenesis, coupled with novel emergent transcriptional cell states. Linage tracing of McSCs from the embryonic to juvenile stages reveals Mitfa activity is subsequently required in regeneration by Schwann cell-like and melanocyte stem cell progenitors that serve as a reservoir for fast-responding pigment progenitors. Thus, the impact of Mitfa loss on the melanocyte lineage is cell-state and stage-specific. The emergent cell states upon mitfa loss may have important implications for our understanding the loss of MITF activity in human genetic disease and melanoma.

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Lamin B1 physically regulates neuronal migration by modulating nuclear deformability in the developing cortex

Shin, M.; Ishida, S.; Yu, J.; Iwashita, M.; Jang, G.-u.; Cortelli, P.; Giorgio, E.; Cani, I.; Ramazzotti, G.; Ratti, S.; Yoshino, D.; Rah, J.-C.; Imai, Y.; Kosodo, Y.

2026-04-17 neuroscience 10.1101/2025.10.22.683830 medRxiv
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Neuronal migration is a vital process that positions billions of neurons to create a functional brain. To navigate the constrained microenvironments within the cortex, precise control over the nuclear mechanics in migrating neurons is indispensable. Here, we show that Lamin B1 (LB1) regulates neuronal migration by modulating nuclear deformability. Excess LB1 in neurons halted migration without altering laminar identity or overall gene expressions in vivo, while in vitro, it elevated nuclear stiffness and impaired neuronal motility in confined spaces. Moreover, mispositioned neurons resulted in electrophysiological defects in the brain. Computational modeling predicted a temporal relationship between nuclear deformation and enhanced migration velocity, which was validated experimentally through live imaging. Notably, cerebral organoid assays using iPS cells established from patients with LMNB1 duplication exhibited impaired neuronal migration in a human model. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that LB1 is a critical regulator of nuclear mechanics, ensuring the accurate spatiotemporal positioning of neurons.

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Heterogeneous, Population-Level Drug-Tolerant Persisters Exhibit Ion-Channel Remodeling and Ferroptosis Susceptibility

Hayford, C. E.; Baleami, B.; Stauffer, P. E.; Paudel, B. B.; Al'Khafaji, A.; Brock, A.; Quaranta, V.; Tyson, D. R.; Harris, L. A.

2026-04-13 systems biology 10.1101/2022.02.03.479045 medRxiv
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Drug-tolerant persisters (DTPs) represent a major obstacle to durable responses in targeted cancer therapy. DTPs are commonly described as distinct single-cell states that survive drug treatment via reversible, non-genetic mechanisms and drive tumor recurrence. Recent work demonstrates that multiple DTPs can coexist, reflecting diversity in lineage, signaling programs, or stress responses. However, each DTP is still generally viewed as a uniform cellular phenotype. Building on our prior work describing a population-level DTP termed "idling" [Paudel et al., Biophys. J. (2018) 114, 1499-1511], here we present evidence supporting a fundamentally different view: that DTPs are not single-cell states, but rather heterogeneous populations composed of multiple sub-states with distinct division and death rates that balance to produce near-zero net population growth. Using single-cell transcriptomics and lineage barcoding, we identify multiple phenotypic states within idling DTP populations, with reduced heterogeneity compared to untreated populations, and find that idling DTP cells emerge from nearly all lineages. Transcriptomic and functional analyses further reveal altered ion-channel activity in idling DTPs, which we confirm experimentally. Moreover, drug-response assays reveal increased susceptibility of idling DTPs to ferroptosis, a non-apoptotic form of regulated cell death, indicating the emergence of vulnerabilities associated with drug tolerance. Altogether, our results support a population-level view of tumor drug tolerance in which DTPs comprise stable collections of phenotypic states, shaped by treatment-defined phenotypic landscapes, which are potentially vulnerable to subsequent interventions. This perspective implies that eradicating DTPs will require a fundamental shift away from cell-type-centric strategies toward sequential treatments that progressively reduce phenotypic heterogeneity by modulating the molecular and cellular processes that establish the DTP landscape, an approach previously termed "targeted landscaping."

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LRRK2 mutations block NCOA4 trafficking upon iron overload leading to ferroptotic death

Goldman, A.; Nguyen, M.; Lanoix, J.; Li, C.; Fahmy, A.; Zhong Xu, Y.; Schurr, E.; Thibault, P.; Desjardins, M.; McBride, H.

2026-04-17 cell biology 10.1101/2025.08.25.672135 medRxiv
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Altered iron homeostasis has long been implicated in Parkinson's Disease (PD), although the mechanisms have not been clear. Given the critical role of PD-related activating mutations in LRRK2 (leucine-rich repeat protein kinase 2) within membrane trafficking pathways we examined the impact of a homozygous mutant LRRK2G2019S on iron homeostasis within the RAW macrophage cell line with high iron capacity. Proteomics analysis revealed a dysregulation of iron-related proteins in steady state with highly elevated levels of ferritin light chain and a reduction of ferritin heavy chain. LRRK2G2019S mutant cells showed efficient ferritinophagy upon iron chelation, but upon iron overload there was a near complete block in the degradation of the ferritinophagy adaptor NCOA4. These conditions lead to an accumulation of phosphorylated Rab8 at the plasma membrane, which is selectively inhibited by LRRK type II kinase inhibitors. Iron overload then leads to increased oxidative stress and ferroptotic cell death. These data implicate LRRK2 as a key regulator of iron homeostasis and point to the need for an increased focus on the mechanisms of iron dysregulation in PD.

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Human Oncogene EWS::FLI1 Functions as a Pioneer Factor in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

Velazquez, D.; Molnar, C.; Reina, J.; Mora, J.; Gonzalez, C.

2026-04-14 cancer biology 10.1101/2025.10.22.680884 medRxiv
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Ewing sarcoma (EwS) is an aggressive, human-exclusive tumor typically driven by the EWS::FLI1 fusion protein. To assess whether the neomorphic functions of EWS::FLI1 are fundamentally dependent on evolutionarily recent cofactors such as ETS transcription factors (ETS-TFs), Plycomb group (PcG) proteins, CBP/p300, or specific subunits of the BAF complex, we expressed EWS::FLI1 in the model organism Saccharomyces cerevisiae. This minimal system was chosen because several key EWS::FLI 's cofactors possess greatly reduced sequence homology (e.g., BAF) or are lacking altogether (e.g., ETS-TFs, PcG, or CBP/p300). We used co-IP/MS to map the yeast interactome, Chip-Seq to identify gDNA binding sequences, RNA-Seq for global gene expression, and engineered reporters to test conversion of (GGAA) tandem repeats (GGAASat) into neoenhancers. We found that the yeast EWS::FLI1 interactome was more limited and qualitatively distinct from its human counterpart, sharing core machinery (e.g. RNA Polymerase II, FACT) but lacking the BAF/SWI-SNF and spliceosome complexes, and showing strong enrichment for the SAGA chromatin remodeling complex. We also found that EWS::FLI1 binds to hundreds of sites in the yeast genome with a clear preference for putative ETS-TF consensus sequences and (CA) dinucleotide repeats. Yet, EWS::FLI1 expressing cells presented only minimal transcriptional dysregulation, a stark contrast to the extensive changes observed in humans and Drosophila cells. Finally, we found that EWS::FLI1 successfully converted silent GGAASat sequences into active enhancers in yeast. This remarkable result occurs despite the absence of homologs for key human activators, such as CBP/p300, strongly suggesting that EWS::FLI1 can mobilize functionally related, non-homologous pathways to establish neoenhancers at GGAASat sites. Altogether, our results indicate that EWS::FLI1's core ability to drive GGAASat-dependent gene expression is a conserved, ancient property, while GGAASat-independent extensive transcriptome reprogramming is dependent on co-factors and pathways specific to animal cells.

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Functional PD-1/PD-L1 engagement defines a spatial biomarker of immunotherapy response

Ullman, T.; Krantz, D.; Avenel, C.; Lung, M.; Svedman, F. C.; Holmsten, K.; Ostling, P.; Ullen, A.; Stadler, C.

2026-04-17 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.15.26350929 medRxiv
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Effective predictive biomarkers for immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy remain an unmet need across solid tumors. Here, we present an integrated spatial proteomics workflow that combines in situ proximity ligation assay with multiplexed immunofluorescence to directly resolve PD1/PDL1 signaling events at the level of defined cellular phenotypes and their spatial organization within intact tumor tissue. Applied as a proof of concept to tumor samples from patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma treated with pembrolizumab, this approach reveals that PD1/PDL1 interactions specifically involving cytotoxic CD8CD3 T cells are significantly enriched in complete responders, while such interactions are rare in patients with progressive disease. This interaction defined T cell subset achieves superior discrimination of clinical response compared to single marker PDL1 expression or immune cell abundance alone. By integrating direct detection of protein protein interactions with high dimensional single cell phenotyping, our workflow provides a mechanistically informed, spatially resolved biomarker of functional immune engagement. Beyond urothelial carcinoma, this platform establishes a generalizable framework for translating spatial signaling biology into predictive tools for immunotherapy response across tumor types.

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Distinct gene signatures of human intermuscular adipose tissue expansion visualized by spatial transcriptomics in mice

Pathak, E.; Tom, R. Z.; Kim, M.; Sachs, S.; Zhang, Y.; Walter, M.; Pfluger, P. T.; Feuchtinger, A.; Dyar, K. A.; Bergman, B. C.; Pleitez, M. A.; Lutter, D.; Hofmann, S. M.

2026-04-17 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.04.16.26351017 medRxiv
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Intermuscular adipose tissue (IMAT) expansion is closely associated with cardiometabolic disease, yet its cellular organization and regulatory mechanisms remain poorly defined. Here, we define a human IMAT gene signature using bulk transcriptomics and identify candidate regulators for IMAT function including adipogenic transcription factor early B-cell factor 2 (EBF2). To determine how these programs are organized in situ, we mapped this signature in a mouse model of diet-induced CMD using spatial transcriptomics. We found that IMAT expansion occurs within discrete stromal niches surrounding muscle fibers, characterized by coordinated activation of adipogenic, extracellular matrix, inflammatory, and metabolic pathways. Spatial analyses showed that fibro-adipogenic progenitor (FAP) abundance does not predict adipocyte formation, supporting a model of localized and context-dependent lineage transitions. Cross-species comparison revealed partial conservation of human IMAT gene programs, validating the mouse model and highlighting species-specific features. Functional experiments in human primary myoblasts showed that EBF2 is sufficient to induce adipogenic reprogramming. Our findings establish IMAT as an active, spatially organized remodeling niche and identify lineage plasticity as a central mechanism driving its expansion in metabolic disease

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OCA-B/Pou2af1 Expression in T Cells Promotes PD-1 Blockade-Induced Autoimmunity but is Dispensable for Anti-Tumor Immunity

Du, J.; Manna, A. K.; Medina-Serpas, M. A.; Hughes, E. P.; Bisoma, P.; Evason, K. J.; Young, A.; Wilson, W. D.; Brusko, T.; Farahat, A. A.; Tantin, D.

2026-04-16 immunology 10.1101/2025.10.22.683978 medRxiv
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The transcription coregulator OCA-B promotes CD4+ T cell memory recall responses and autoimmunity. OCA-B T cell deletion prevents spontaneous type-1 diabetes (T1D) onset in non-obese diabetic (NOD) mice and blunts T1D in a subset of more aggressive models. However, the role of OCA-B in diabetes induced by treatment with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), and the role of OCA-B in the control of tumors with and without ICI treatment, has not been studied. Here we show that islet and pancreatic lymph node T cells from T1D individuals express measurable POU2AF1 mRNA. Deletion of OCA-B in T cells fully insulates 8-week-old non-obese diabetic (NOD) mice against ICI-induced diabetes and partially protects 12-week-old mice. Salivary and lacrimal gland infiltration and inflammation were also reduced. Protection was associated with a block in the differentiation of progenitor exhausted CD8+ T cells (TPEX) into terminally exhausted CD8+ T cells (TEX). We show that OCA-B T cell loss preserves anti-tumor immune responses following PD-1 blockade in different tumors and mouse strains. These findings point to a potential therapeutic window in which pharmaceuticals targeting OCA-B could be used to block the emergence of both spontaneous and ICI-induced autoimmunity while sparing anti-tumor immunity. We develop first-in-class small molecule inhibitors of Oct1/OCA-B transcription complexes and show that administration into NOD mice also blocks diabetes emergence following PD-1 blockade. These results identify OCA-B as a promising therapeutic target for the prevention of autoimmunity and immune-related adverse events (irAEs).

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A safer fluorescent in situ hybridization protocol for cryosections

Chihara, A.; Mizuno, R.; Kagawa, N.; Takayama, A.; Okumura, A.; Suzuki, M.; Shibata, Y.; Mochii, M.; Ohuchi, H.; Sato, K.; Suzuki, K.-i. T.

2026-04-16 molecular biology 10.1101/2025.05.25.655994 medRxiv
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Fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) enables highly sensitive, high-resolution detection of gene transcripts. Moreover, by employing multiple probes, this technique allows for multiplexed, simultaneous detection of distinct gene expression patterns spatiotemporally, making it a valuable spatial transcriptomics approach. Owing to these advantages, FISH techniques are rapidly being adopted across diverse areas of basic biology. However, conventional protocols often rely on volatile, toxic reagents such as formalin or methanol, posing potential health risks to researchers. Here, we present a safer protocol that replaces these chemicals with low-toxicity alternatives, without compromising the high detection sensitivity of FISH. We validated this protocol using both in situ hybridization chain reaction (HCR) and signal amplification by exchange reaction (SABER)-FISH in frozen sections of various model organisms, including mouse (Mus musculus), amphibians (Xenopus laevis and Pleurodeles waltl), and medaka (Oryzias latipes). Our results demonstrate successful multiplexed detection of morphogenetic and cell-type marker genes in these model animals using this safer protocol. The protocol has the additional advantage of requiring no proteolytic enzyme treatment, thus preserving tissue integrity. Furthermore, we show that this protocol is fully compatible with EGFP immunostaining, allowing for the simultaneous detection of mRNAs and reporter proteins in transgenic animals. This protocol retains the benefits of highly sensitive, multiplexed, and multimodal detection afforded by integrating in situ HCR and SABER-FISH with immunohistochemistry, while providing a safer option for researchers, thereby offering a valuable tool for basic biology.

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Imaging Mass Cytometry (IMC) as a Tool to Characterize Circulating Tumor Cells (CTCs) in Preclinical Mouse Models

Pore, M.; Balamurugan, K.; Atkinson, A.; Breen, D.; Mallory, P.; Cardamone, A.; McKennett, L.; Newkirk, C.; Sharan, S.; Bocik, W.; Sterneck, E.

2026-04-16 cancer biology 10.64898/2025.12.18.695262 medRxiv
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Circulating tumor cells (CTCs), and especially CTC-clusters, are linked to poor prognosis and may reveal mechanisms of metastasis and treatment resistance. Therefore, developing unbiased methods for the functional characterization of CTCs in liquid biopsies is an urgent need. Here, we present an evaluation of multiplex imaging mass cytometry (IMC) to analyze CTCs in mice with human xenograft tumors. In a single-step process, IMC uses metal-labeled antibodies to simultaneously detect a large number of proteins/modifications within minimally manipulated small volumes of blood from the tail vein or heart. We used breast cancer cell lines and a patient-derived xenograft (PDX) to assess antibodies for cross-species interpretation. Along with manual verification, HALO-AI-based cell segmentation was used to identify CTCs and quantify markers. Despite some limitations regarding human-specificity, this technology can be used to investigate the effect of genetic and pharmacological interventions on the properties of single and cluster CTCs in tumor-bearing mice.

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Integrated mapping of human meniscus and cartilage eQTLs reveals shared and distinct osteoarthritis genetic drivers

Uchida, Y.; Fujii, Y.; Swahn, H.; Ueda, M. T.; Chiba, T.; Matsushima, T.; Naito, Y.; Nakamichi, R.; Takahashi, K.; Olmer, M.; The RE-JOIN Consortium Investigators, ; Lotz, M.; Kochi, Y.; Asahara, H.

2026-04-16 orthopedics 10.64898/2026.04.12.26350702 medRxiv
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Osteoarthritis (OA) is a prevalent musculoskeletal disorder and a leading cause of global disability. Although meniscal damage is a major risk factor of OA pathogenesis, genetic regulatory studies have remained largely confined to articular cartilage. Here, we establish the first comprehensive expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) map integrating whole-genome sequencing and bulk transcriptomics from human meniscus (n=112) and cartilage (n=113). Supported by single-nucleus multiomics (cartilage: 56,549 nuclei; meniscus: 34,343 nuclei), we uncovered highly tissue-specific genetic risk architectures. Colocalization with OA GWAS identified 27 meniscus-specific, 28 shared, and 20 cartilage-specific causal genes. Chromatin-informed fine-mapping and deconvolution elucidated distinct pathogenic mechanisms; notably, meniscus-specific signals converged on VEGFA via rare promoter variants and an enhancer in fibrochondrocyte progenitors, alongside a shared eQTL for CLEC18A. Exploratory analysis suggested candidate compounds to reverse pathogenic gene expression. Our findings underscore the meniscus as a distinct genetic driver, molecularly reinforcing OA as an entire joint organ failure.

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Positive Selection Screen Identifies Natural Product β-Catenin Inactivators

Boudreau, M. W.; Freire, V. F.; Corbett, S. C.; Martinez-Fructuoso, L.; Shenoy, S. R.; Yu, W.; Kumar, R.; Thornburg, C. C.; Akee, R. K.; Peyser, B. D.; Jiang, Q.; Splaine, J.; Pfaff, J. L.; Chandler, B. C.; Abeja, D. M.; Donovan, K. A.; Che, J.; Lampson, B. L.; Cooke, M.; Kazanietz, M. G.; Szajner, P.; Smith, J. A.; Koduri, V.; Grkovic, T.; OKeefe, B. R.; Kaelin, W. G.

2026-04-17 cancer biology 10.1101/2025.08.27.671140 medRxiv
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Many genetically validated targets in cancer, including the transcription factor {beta}-catenin ({beta}-cat), have historically been viewed as undruggable. Cell-based phenotypic screening of chemical compounds can reveal new biological and pharmacological principles. Natural products are powerful probes because of their superior structural diversity, drug-like properties, and biological activities as compared to unoptimized synthetic compounds. We screened 326,304 natural product mixtures (40,744 extracts and 285,560 fractions derived from them) using mammalian cells expressing an oncogenic version of {beta}-cat fused to a suicide protein. Multiple fractions degraded the {beta}-cat fusion protein or drove it into a compartment where both fusion partners were apparently inactive. The active natural product from one of the latter specifically activates novel, but not classical, protein kinase Cs (PKCs) and thereby relocates {beta}-cat to juxtamembrane vacuolar structures. These findings suggest a path for inactivating oncogenic {beta}-cat and underscore the power of screening natural product collections with robust phenotypic assays.

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A geometric-surface PDE model for cell-nucleus translocation through confinement

Ballatore, F.; Madzvamuse, A.; Jebane, C.; Helfer, E.; Allena, R.

2026-04-17 biophysics 10.64898/2025.12.18.695144 medRxiv
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Understanding how cells migrate through confined environments is crucial for elucidating fundamental biological processes, including cancer invasion, immune surveillance, and tissue morphogenesis. The nucleus, as the largest and stiffest cellular organelle, often limits cellular deformability, making it a key factor in migration through narrow pores or highly constrained spaces. In this work, we introduce a geometric surface partial differential equation (GS-PDE) model in which the cell plasma membrane and nuclear envelope are described as evolving energetic closed surfaces governed by force-balance equations. We replicate the results of a biophysical experiment, where a microfluidic device is used to impose compressive stresses on cells by driving them through narrow microchannels under a controlled pressure gradient. The model is validated by reproducing cell entry into the microchannels. A parametric sensitivity analysis highlights the dominant influence of specific parameters, whose accurate estimation is essential for faithfully capturing the experimental setup. We found that surface tension and confinement geometry emerge as key determinants of translocation efficiency. Although tailored to this specific setup for validation purposes, the framework is sufficiently general to be applied to a broad range of cell mechanics scenarios, providing a robust and flexible tool for investigating the interplay between cell mechanics and confinement. It also offers a solid foundation for future extensions integrating more complex biochemical processes such as active confined migration.

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Single-molecule cfDNA sequencing establishes clinical utility for ecDNA monitoring and multimodal liquid biopsy analysis

Sauer, C. M.; Tovey, N.; Ptasinska, A.; Hughes, D.; Stockton, J.; Zumalave, S.; Rust, A. G.; Lynn, C.; Livellara, V.; Sevrin, F.; Himsworth, C.; Muyas, F.; Nicolaidou, M.; Parry, G.; Paisana, E.; Cascao, R.; Ahmed, S. W.; Yasin, S. A.; Portela, L. R.; Balasubramanian, P.; Burke, G. A. A.; Vedi, A.; Faria, C. C.; Marshall, L. V.; Jacques, T. S.; Hubank, M.; Hargrave, D.; George, S.; Angelini, P.; Anderson, J.; Chesler, L.; Beggs, A. D.; Cortes-Ciriano, I.

2026-04-12 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350410 medRxiv
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Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) profiling enables minimally invasive cancer detection and monitoring. We present SIMMA, a low-input single-molecule sequencing approach that enables multimodal whole-genome and high-depth targeted sequencing of the same cfDNA sample for both tumour-agnostic and tumour-informed liquid biopsy analysis. Across 792 plasma and cerebrospinal fluid cfDNA samples from 277 paediatric patients with diverse brain and extracranial tumours, SIMMA enabled tumour diagnosis, detection of driver mutations, and reconstruction of extrachromosomal DNA (ecDNA) months before clinical relapse. Using conformal prediction trained on genome-wide fragmentomics, genomic and epigenomic data, SIMMA predicts disease burden as a continuous variable and provides well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for each sample, achieving a limit of detection of [~]100 ppm from low-pass whole-genome sequencing data. In summary, SIMMA establishes the clinical utility of multimodal cfDNA profiling with uncertainty quantification for individual patients and unlocks the potential of ecDNA as a liquid biopsy biomarker for disease detection and monitoring across diverse aggressive malignancies.

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Differential locus coeruleus-hippocampus interactions during offline states

Yang, M.; Eschenko, O.

2026-04-11 neuroscience 10.1101/2025.09.18.677005 medRxiv
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Patterns of locus coeruleus (LC) activity and norepinephrine (NE) release during non-rapid-eye-movement (NREM) sleep suggest a critical role for the LC-NE system in offline modulation of forebrain circuits. NE transmission promotes synaptic plasticity and is required for memory consolidation, but the field has only begun to uncover how LC activity contributes to coordinated forebrain network dynamics. Hippocampal ripples, a hallmark of memory replay, are temporally coupled with thalamocortical oscillations; however, the circuit mechanisms underlying systems-level consolidation across larger brain networks remain incompletely understood. Here, using multi-site electrophysiology, we examined LC firing in relation to hippocampal ripples in freely behaving rats. LC activity and ripple occurrence were state-dependent and inversely related: heightened arousal was associated with increased LC firing and reduced ripple rates. At finer timescales, LC spiking decreased {approx}1-2 seconds before ripple onset, with the strongest modulation during awake ripples but minimal change during ripple- spindle coupling. These findings reveal state-dependent dynamics of LC-hippocampal interactions, positioning the LC as a key component of a cortical-subcortical network supporting systems-level memory consolidation.

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Age-specific income losses due to HPV-attributable cancers in Singapore

Blythe, R.; Graves, N.; Iyer, N. G.; Peres, M. A.

2026-04-17 health economics 10.64898/2026.04.16.26351014 medRxiv
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Introduction The link between Human Papillomavirus (HPV) and cancer is well-established. In Singapore, bivalent HPV vaccines are subsidised for females, but not males. Economic analysis of HPV vaccination has generally assessed the costs to the health system, but this may not be as relevant to individual decision-making as potential lost income. We estimated the impact of bivalent HPV 16/18 vaccination on sick leave, unemployment, and premature mortality as a function of age and sex to understand the broader impact of HPV-related cancers. Methods We developed a population-level economic model to estimate lifetime income losses by diagnosis age, sex and cancer type. We applied sex- and cancer-specific Cox regressions to the Singapore Cancer Registry for annual predicted survival from 1992 to 2022. These were combined with census and employment data to estimate HPV-associated income losses in Singapore. Attributable fractions and vaccine effectiveness data for HPV 16/18 from the literature were used to estimate the effectiveness of bivalent HPV vaccination. Structural sensitivity analysis examined the role of 80% population coverage conferring herd immunity. Results The registry contained 17,294 individuals with an HPV-associated cancer diagnosis. Lost income was greatest for cervical cancer due to its high prevalence, however the losses per diagnosis were highest for oropharyngeal cancer. Bivalent HPV vaccination led to income benefits of $SGD1,397 [$895 to $1,838] in girls and -$62 [-$76 to -$48] in boys. A gender-neutral HPV vaccination of 80% of 15-year-old Singaporeans, conferring herd immunity, would have lifetime income protective benefits of $24.4m [$14.2m, $33.7m] per cohort, a five-fold return on investment. Conclusions In addition to avoiding healthcare costs and lost quality of life, parents should consider vaccination as a means of avoiding potential income losses. A national policy of gender-neutral HPV vaccination could deliver substantial income protection due to both individual vaccine protection and herd immunity.

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Mapping the Dynamic Interplay of Mental Health and Weight Across Childhood: Data-Driven Explorations Using Causal Discovery

Larsen, T. E.; Lorca, M. H.; Ekstrom, C. T.; Vinding, R.; Bonnelykke, K.; Strandberg-Larsen, K.; Petersen, A. H.

2026-04-17 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.16.26350943 medRxiv
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Childhood weight development, especially overweight and obesity, has been associated with mental health, but their dynamic, causal relationships, and whether these differ by sex, remain unclear. We applied causal discovery to data from the Danish National Birth Cohort (n=67,593) spanning six periods from pregnancy to late adolescence and considering 67 variables related to child and parental weight, mental health, lifestyle, and socio-economic factors. We found no statistically significant difference between the causal graphs for boys and girls (P=0.079). The data-driven models found causal influence of childhood weight on subsequent weight status. Mental health pathways were exclusively within or across adjacent periods and centered on early adolescent stress. We examined the interplay between a subset of mental health variables, containing information on externalizing and internalizing problems, and weight, and found no direct causal pathway between the two processes. These findings suggest that observed links between weight and these mental health measures may be attributable to confounding. Our findings demonstrate the value of data-driven causal discovery in large cohort studies and how to test for differences in causal mechanisms across subgroups. Results are available in an interactive application, enabling future research to further explore the interplay between weight and mental health.

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JARVIS, should this study be selected for full-text screening? Performance of a Joint AI-ReViewer Interactive Screening tool for systematic reviews

Barreto, G. H. C.; Burke, C.; Davies, P.; Halicka, M.; Paterson, C.; Swinton, P.; Saunders, B.; Higgins, J. P. T.

2026-04-11 health informatics 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350384 medRxiv
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BackgroundSystematic reviews are essential for evidence-based decision making in health sciences but require substantial time and resource for manual processes, particularly title and abstract screening. Recent advances in machine learning and large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated promise in accelerating screening with high recall but are often limited by modest gains in efficiency, mostly due to the absence of a generalisable stopping criterion. Here, we introduce and report preliminary findings on the performance of a novel semi-automated active learning system, JARVIS, that integrates LLM-based reasoning using the PICOS framework, neural networks-based classification, and human decision-making to facilitate abstract screening. MethodsDatasets containing author-made inclusion and exclusion decisions from six published systematic reviews were used to pilot the semi-automated screening system. Model performance was evaluated across recall, specificity and area under the curve precision-recall (AUC-PR), using full-text inclusion as the ground truth. Estimated workload and financial savings were calculated by comparing total screening time and reviewer costs across manual and semi-automated scenarios. ResultsAcross the six review datasets, recall ranged between 98.2% and 100%, and specificity ranged between 97.9% and 99.2% at the defined stopping point. Across iterations, AUC-PR values ranged between 83.8% and 100%. Compared with human-only screening, JARVIS delivered workload savings between 71.0% and 93.6%. When a single reviewer read the excluded records, workload savings ranged between 35.6 % and 46.8%. ConclusionThe proposed semi-automated system substantially reduced reviewer workload while maintaining high recall, improving on previously reported approaches. Further validation in larger and more varied reviews, as well as prospective testing, is warranted.

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Simulation-Based Comparison of ControlledInterrupted Time Series (CITS) and Multivariable Regression

ORWA, F. O.; Mutai, C.; Nizeyimana, I.; Mwangi, A.

2026-04-13 health policy 10.64898/2026.04.10.26350670 medRxiv
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When randomized controlled trials are impractical, interrupted time series designs offer a rigorous quasi-experimental approach to assess population level policies. Indeed, in the context of quasi-experimental designs (QEDs), the Interrupted Time Series (ITS) method is commonly thought of as the most robust. But interrupted time series designs are susceptible to serial correlation and confounding by time-varying factors associated with both the intervention and the outcome, which may result in biased inference. Thus, we provide a simulation-based contrast of controlled interrupted time series (CITS) and multivariable regression (multivariable negative binomial regression) for estimation of policy effects in count time series data. These approaches are widely used in policy evaluations, yet their comparative performance in typical population health settings has rarely been examined directly. We tested both approaches within a variety of data generating situations, differing in the series length, intervention effect size, and magnitude of lag-1 autocorrelation. Bias, standard error calibration, confidence interval coverage, mean squared error, and statistical power were assessed for performance. Both methods gave unbiased estimates for moderate and large intervention effects, although bias was more pronounced for small effects, particularly in short series. Although the point estimate performance was similar, inferential properties varied significantly. CITS always had smaller mean squared error, better consistency between model based and empirical standard errors, and confidence interval coverage near the 95% nominal levels over weak to moderate autocorrelation. By contrast, multivariable regression was more sensitive to serial dependence, leading to underestimated standard errors and undercoverage, especially at moderate to high autocorrelation, regardless of Newey-West adjustments. These findings show the benefits of using a concurrent control series and the importance of structurally accounting for serial correlation when studying population level policies with time series data.

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Patient Portal Activation Among Neurology Patients in Washington, DC

Streicher, N. S.

2026-04-11 health policy 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350061 medRxiv
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Background and ObjectivesPatient portals have become essential infrastructure for healthcare delivery following the 21st Century Cures Act, yet adoption remains inequitable. Understanding demographic and geographic determinants of portal activation is critical for addressing digital health disparities, particularly among neurology patients who face unique access barriers. We examined the demographic, geographic, and neighborhood-level factors associated with patient portal activation among neurology patients at multiple geographic scales in the Washington, DC metropolitan area. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of 72,417 adult neurology patients seen at two academic medical centers sharing an electronic health record in Washington, DC (February 2021-February 2026). We examined portal activation using multivariable logistic regression and geographic analysis at four nested scales: the metropolitan catchment area, DCs eight wards, individual census tracts (via geocoded patient addresses), and individual DC residents. ResultsPortal activation was 64.7% overall. Activation varied by race/ethnicity (Non-Hispanic White 76.1%, Non-Hispanic Black 57.0%, Non-Hispanic Asian 57.6%, Hispanic 55.0%) and geography (DC Ward 2: 82.0% vs. Ward 7: 48.0%). Ward-level educational attainment (r = 0.948), broadband access (r = 0.889), and income (r = 0.811) were strongly correlated with activation. Within individual wards, Non-Hispanic White patients activated at 84-91% while Non-Hispanic Black patients activated at 48-64%, demonstrating that neighborhood resources alone do not explain disparities. DiscussionPatient portal activation is shaped by demographic, socioeconomic, and geographic factors operating at multiple levels. Persistent within-ward racial disparities indicate that geographically targeted interventions must be paired with culturally tailored approaches to achieve digital health equity.